Iran's Reaction to the 'Kurdistan Independence Referendum'

The announcement of Masoud Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region in Iraq (KRG) on June 7 that a referendum for independence of the Kurdistan regionwould be held on September 25 sparked harsh reactions from almost all parts of the Iranian administration. Iranian officials have arguedon all occasions that the decision for independence referendum is a one-sided decision that threatens sovereignty and territorial integrity of Irak, and urged the Iraqi Kurdish leaders to give up on this decision.

Through mutual visits subsequent to the announcement of referendum, Iranian officials tried to persuade the KRG to shelve itsdecision. In response to invitation of Iran, a delegation of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) including Jalal Talabani, Mullah Bahtiyar, Kosrat Rasul Ali went to Tehran in the middle of July, and met Iranian officials. Secretary General of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC)and Ayatollah Khamenei's representativeat the SNSC, Ali Shamkhani warned the delegation that the referendum was not a priority, or need of people, and it would weaken Kurdistan and all Iraq.

Ahmad Khatami, Tehran's Friday prayer leader,claimed in his speech delivered on September 15 that the independence ‘referendum ispart of a plot to create another Israel in the region.’ Recalling the fact that while the regional countries are opposing the referendum only Israel publiclysupports it, he calledauthorities in the Kurdistan region to ‘come to their senses and give up the Israeli plot.Likewise, Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser of Ayatollah Khameneiclaimed that the independence referendum would be the first step for the disintegration of Iraq, and argued that this would weaken regional countries, and pave the ground for penetration of foreigners, especially Zionistsinto the region.

Iranian government plainlyrejectedthe independence referendum when it was first put forward by KRG in 2014, and since thenit has continuously stated the importance of protecting Iraq's territorial integrity. When the referendum issuecame back to the agenda, Iran initially wanted this issue to be dealtwith through negotiations between Arbil and Baghdad, and declared its readiness to mediate between the parties. In fact, Qassem Suleimani, Commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)recently met the KDP, PUK and Gorran officials in Arbil and Sulaymaniyah. He is reportedly reminded his collocutors thatsafeguarding territorial integrity of Iraq is regarded by Iran as the red line. He promised that Iran wouldstrive for the improvement of relations between Arbil and Baghdad, if the referendum were cancelled; otherwise, the KRG wouldbe left alone against potential threats.

The second step taken by Iran is to talk with regional countries,especially with Turkey, and to take a jointposition against the referendum. In was on the agenda of Geneal Bagher,
Chief of General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces, when hepaid a rare visit to Ankara on 15-17 August. Later on, Bagheri and his Turkish counterpart, General Hulusi Akar addressed the given issue in atelephone conversation.  Akar is expected to visit Tehran in the coming days. Additionally, Ayatollah Shahroudi, Chairman of Expediency Discernment Council, and Mohsen Rezaee, Secretary General of the given Council and former commander of IRGC,visited Baghdad in early September, and held a series of talks with Iraqi officials.

Because of the KRG’s insistence on holding the referendum on the scheduled day, Tehran has begun to intimidate on the Iraqi Kurdistan leaders. Ali Shamkhani indicated that if the KRG declared its independence, Iran mightrevise its relations with the Iraqi Kurdistan, close theborder gates, andsuspend military and security agreements between the KRG and Iran. It was alleged that Suleimanithreatened his interlocutors during his visit to Iraq byany action of Hashd al-Shaabi.

Why does Iran oppose the referendum?

Despite occasional disputes between them, Iran has been in good relations with the KRG since its foundation. In fact, Iran was the only regional country to support the KRG as a federal region within Iraq. Yet, why does Iran oppose independence of the KRG?

First, from the Iranian point of view, disintegration of the territorial integrity of Iraq that isrecognised as a sovereign state by the international system and regional statesmay trigger new security challenges in the region. The disintegration of Iraq could encourage separatist movements in Syria, Iran and Turkey. This process can affect not only the Kurds but also other ethnic groups. For this reason, Iran, hosting many ethnic minorities, is highly concerned with this process.

Additionally, the rejection of the referendum by the Iraqi Government,and disagreements overcontrol of the disputed territories,including Kirkuk,mayunleasharmed clashes between the Kurds and the Iraqi Government. Hence, the Iraqi Kurdish bid for independence is seen as a step that can bring about instability and new conflicts both inside Iraq, and in the region. Moreover, newconflicts and crises that is highly likely to arise in the region may hinder the struggle against ISIS.

It is also crucial to maintain stability in Iraq for the security of Iran’s western borders. However, in case the referendum triggers new conflicts in Iraq, Iran’s western borders may be destabilized and the security may fall into danger. For long years,Iran has already faced security challenges arising from the armed activities of Kurdish movements(KDPI, Komala, PJAK etc.)based in Iraqi Kurdish territories. The fact that these groups have recently intensified their anti-Iran activities has alarmed Iran.

Holding a referendum for independence, according to the evaluations of Iranian officials, is not demanded by people, but is required for personal accounts ofBarzani. A significant number of Kurdish leaders are opposing it. Therefore, it is likely that new clashes may take place between the opposing Kurdish groupsduring the referendum. This, in turn, could be a new source of instability in the region.

The United States, the UN, and the European countries are, at least rhetorically, opposing to the referendum as well. The UN and European countries also refused to send observers to oversee the referendum. Despite its ostensible opposition to the referendum, many Iranian analysts blame the United States is to engineer all this stuff.Additionally, one of the long-term concerns of Iran, since the early 1990s,with regard to the Iraqi Kurdistan is its potential turninto an arena that could be easily exploited by Israel. Now, the plain support of Israel given for the referendum, and Iranian suspicions towards the American policies in the region highlight its concerns.

Finally, prospective independence of the Iraqi Kurdistan may decrease Iranian capacity to interferein the region. Till the present time, Iran hasbeen able to intervene in the region through its bilateral relations with different Kurdish groups, the Arbil Administration or Baghdad. Moreover, Tehran could use its influence over the Kurds in the overall Iraqi politics. The Iranian role and interests cannot be denied in the Shiite-Kurdish alliance that emerged after the US occupation of Iraq. Therefore, Iran can be deprived of an effective leverage on Iraqi politics. On the other hand, as a federal region in Iraq, the KRG has been in need of Tehran's support from the political and security perspectives. As a matter of fact, this hasbeen clearly seen during the ISIS threat. This asymmetric relationship has provided Iran with the opportunity to put pressure on Iraqi Kurds. However, the declaration of independence of the KRG and its recognition as a sovereign state by the international community can reduce Iran's influence on the Kurds.

20.09.2017
http://orsam.org.tr/orsam/DPAnaliz/14503?dil=en

The Mosul Operation and Iran

2016-10-27

The tension between Ankara and the Baghdad government has escalated over the Turkish forces at the Bashika base, right after the approval of a motion in TGNA that allowed the deployment of Turkish soldiers outside the country, and prior to the beginning of Mosul offensive that has been cooked up for a long time to liberate it from ISIS. Haidar al-Abadi, Iraqi Prime Minister, stated on October 5, “I fear the Turkish adventure could turn into a regional war.” That statement of Abadi is most viewed as a threat to Turkey. Additionally, some people claimed that the Abadi government turned against Turkey because of the pressures of the United States and Iran, which are thought to be influential over Baghdad.

Indeed, the Iranian officials have stood with the Iraqi government through continuousstatements. Recently, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani implicitly criticized Turkey in a speech he gave on October 24. He said, “We regard as very dangerous [acts of] intervention by foreign countries without any coordination with the host country and believe that [for any foreign measure,] the Syrian and Iraqi governments must request help and demand that another country act against terrorism inside their territories. This [regulation] is based on international principles and [any move] contrary to it will exacerbate insecurity.”

Aside from internal and external pressures on the Iraqi government, aforementioned statement of Abadi actually indicates how interests of regional powers are overlapped particularly with regard to Mosul. Most probably, interests of Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Kurdish movements that are powerful in the region will clash after the liberation of Mosul.

Iranian Interests and Concerns in Iraq, and Turkey

Iran places a special importance on Iraq, with whom it shares a border longer than 1,400 kilometers, for historical, cultural and strategic reasons. Ali Younesi, advisor to President Rouhani and former minister of intelligence, once stated on this regard in March 2015: “At the moment Iraq is not only the bastion of our civilization, it is also our identity, culture and capital and this is true now as in the past.The geography and culture of Iran and Iraq cannot be divided.’ Likewise, in his interview with As-Safir daily, Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Iranian Leader Ayatollah Khamanei, and former minister of foreign affairs, said, “Iraq is more important than all of other Arab countries [including Syria].”

The greatest concern of Iran with regard to Iraq is the disintegration of that country or the domination of hostile or competing forces. The Tehran regime that has ‘strategic partnership’ with Baghdad pays attention to maintain territorial integrity and sovereignty of Iraq. That is why it has given over reaction to Turkey. Above else, according to Tehran, Turkish military presence in Iraq destroys sovereignty of Baghdad government. In fact, Iran prefers a weak government in Bagdad not to pose a threat to Tehran, but strong enough to keep its integrity. It is important for the preservations of Iranian achievement in Iraq in the last decade, as well.

Secondly, Iran is anxious with attempts of Turkey, a regional rivalry, arguably aimed at building its own spheres of influence inside Iraq. Since for a long time, Iran has been worried with claims of ‘Turkish nationalists’ with regard to Mosul and Kirkuk. Current Turkish military presence that has been deployed in a place very close to Mosul against the wishes of Baghdad, the close relations between Ankara and Masoud Barzani, President of KRG, and the questioning of borders in the region by some high-level Turkish officials have further amplified Iranian concerns.

Additionally, contrary to its remarkable influence in among the Iraqi Shiites and Kurds, Iran could not reach into predominantly Sunni-Arab provinces like Mosul. For that reason, Iran views the Mosul operation as an opportunity to enlarge its influence into remaining parts of Iraq. The liberation of Mosul by the Iraqi forces, supported by Iran, would serve to this interest of Tehran. Hence, in addition to rebuilding the authority of Baghdad in that province, Iran, as the principal supporter of Iraq, would be regarded as one of the saviors of Mosul. Additionally, Iranian officials ask the inclusion of People’s Mobilization Forces (al-Hashd al-Sha’abi) into the Mosul operation. Thus, Iran could enlarge its influence in this region due to the Hashd al-Sha’abi that is supposed to be settled in here. Although it has been turned into an official security institution under the command of the Chief Commander of Armed Forces of Iraq, the Hashd al-Sha’abi is still an umbrella organization covering various militia forces. Some of them, including the Badr Force, Ashain ahle al-Haq, Ketaib-e Hezbollah, are known to have close relations with Iran. Likewise, Sheikh Akram al-Kaabi, leader of a militia group named Hezbollah al-Nujaba, visited Tehran for the first time in August 2016, where he met with high-level officials. While talking to Ayatollah Mohsen, he said, “we follow Vilayat-e Faqih with the leadership of Imam Khamenei.”

Another reason that sparked Iranian reactions to Turkey is growing strategic cooperation between Ankara government and Saudi Arabia. Recently, Iran countered the joint statement declared after the 5thJoint Ministerial Meeting on GCC-Turkey Strategic Dialogue held in Riyad, on October 13. The foreign ministers called Iran, in the joint statement, “not to interfere in the internal affairs of the countries in the region” and “to respond positively to the efforts of the United Arab Emirates to resolve the issue of the three islands Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa.” They also expressed “their concern about the plans to involve sectarian militia forces, which perpetrated revenge attacks, mass killings, torture and clear human rights abuses against local population of the liberated areas, in the imminent Mosul operation.” In response to growing Turkish-Saudi cooperation, Iranian officials and analysts blame Turkey to dance to Saudi’s tune in Iraq, as the cases of Syria and Yemen. Iran who blames Saudi Arabia to be supporter of takfiri terrorism, even ISIS,accuses Turkey of similar behaviors.

Iranian Accusations against Turkey

Iran, considering the Turkish military and political presence as a threat to its interests in the region,criticizes  and charges Turkey mainly for three reasons. First, Iranian officials claim that Turkish activities and rhetoric with regard to the region, amplifies ethnic and sectarian differences. Accordingly, Turkish view of Iraqi society through sectarian lenses, i.e., the Shiites and the Sunnis, underestimating the unity of Iraqi nation, and its opposition to the inclusion of Hashd al-Sha’abi in the Mosul operation arguably for its being a Shiite organization is leading to destroy of Iraq. In fact, they often talk about the unity of Iraqi nation and the association of its people whether they are Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, or Arabs. Additionally, they underline that Hash al-Sha’abi is not exclusively consisted of Shiites, but every sector of Iraqi people including the Sunnis, Turkomans, Kurds, and Christians are part of that organizations. The second critique of Iranians towards Turkey revolves around claims on so-called Turkish support for ‘takfiri terrorists.’ Moreover, the Turkish insistence on take part in the Mosul operation, some argues, derives from its aim to back ‘terrorists.’ Finally, they claim that Turkey helps the American or Zionist plots to disintegrate Syria and Iraq. Bahram Ghasemi, Spokesman of Iranian Foreign Ministry, penned an opinion for Iran daily on October 19. “Unfortunately some of the regional countries do not want Iraq to maintain its integrity, do not approve current Iraqi government, and wish Iraq in a status close to its previous place in their history” he wrote.

The greatest advantage of Iran that has been trying to balance Turkey particularly in Iraq, and in the whole region, is its alliance with the Baghdad government. Thus, hundreds of Iranian soldiers are employed as ‘military advisor’ on the request and invitation of Baghdad government, and they could take part in military operations, and increase their sway over Hashd al-Sha’abi.Likewise, having been comfortable with its agreement with the Iraqi government, Iran fully supports the liberation of Mosul from ISIS. Hence, while constraining effects of its regional rivals, Tehran consolidates its own influence in Iraq on behalf of supporting the “unity and territorial integrity of Iraq and its struggle against terrorism.”

 2016-10-27

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