US-Iran Relations under the Presidency of Trump

2017-06-30

The US President Donald Trump who took office on January 20, 2017 has gradually shaped his Middle East Policy. The Trump administration has described not only the extremist Islamic movements in the region but also Iran as an obvious threat to American interests and allies in the region due to its support for international terrorism, destabilizing activities in the region, nuclear program, and ballistic missile program. Moreover, the Secretary of Defense, James Mattis stated that "Iran is the single most enduring threat to stability and peace in the Middle East". However, within the last two months since his accession, Trump did not cancel the nuclear deal as he promised during the campaign period but he gave clues on how to struggle against the Iranian threat.

Trump Administration's Moves against Iran

Although Trump gave harsh messages to Iran from time to time during the election campaign period, he did not reveal what kind of policy he would adopt. Nevertheless, the fact that his choices for foreign policy and security teams that are consisted of some figures who have been keen on to take strict measures against Iran foreshadows escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. The Republicans who have dominated the Congress took some measures against Iran even before the inauguration of Trump. In a bill submitted to the Congress on January 3, Republican representative Alcee L. Hastings asked his fellow Congressmen to ‘authorize’ President ‘to use the US Armed Forces in order to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapon’.

In another draft resolution introduced to the Congress on January 10, Senator Ted Cruz asked "the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that conduct the terror activities of the Iranian regime to be added on the 'Foreign Terrorist Organizations' (FTOs) list". This resolution aimed to restrict the IRGC's activities outside Iran as well as to stop commercial and financial activities of IRGC-related companies. Moreover, it is envisaged that the IRGC's influence on the Iranian economy would make transaction business of the third countries difficult.

In mid-February, in some circles, President Trump was expected to issue a decree adding the IRGC to the terrorist organizations list. However, it is claimed that Trump renounced signing the decree for the time being due to the warnings that came from both the Department of Defense and the Department of Foreign Affairs that arguably stated that adding the IRGC to the terrorist organizations list would weaken the struggle against ISIS and make it difficult to enforce the nuclear deal.

Another event that increased the tension between two countries was Iran's testing of medium-range ballistic missile (Qadr) on January 29. The US administration claimed that this event had violated the nuclear deal and the UN Security Council's 2231 resolution that bans the tests made by Iran of missile capable of carrying nuclear warhead, and brought the issue to the UN Security Council. Iranian officials have confirmed the missile tests but defended that they had not violated the nuclear deal. On February 3, the US Department of the Treasury announced in a statement that 13 Iranian and 12 Iranian companies some of which operate in Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China were added to the sanction list.

In the meantime, the US administration made harsh statements against Iran. The national security adviser Michael Flynn stated that the White House "was officially putting Iran on notice" due to the missile test and the Houthis’ attack on Saudi warship off the coast of Yemen. "The period of ignoring the hostile and aggressive behavior of Iran against the US and the world society is over," said Flynn who noted that the international community had been too tolerant of Iran's bad behavior up to now, and the ‘ritual of convening a UN Security Council in an emergency meeting and issuing a strong statement’ is not enough. The Secretary of Defense Mattis called Iran as "the single biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world" and "the biggest destabilizing force in the Middle East". On February 3, President Trump tweeted that "Iran is playing with fire. They don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!" He said "Nothing is off the table," when asked whether the military measures are possible or not by a journalist. On a Fox TV show on February 5, he referred to Iran as a "terrorist state"; however, he rejected talking about military options.

Trump, who tries to increase the pressure on both Iran and the third countries doing business with Iran by threatening to declare IRGC as a terrorist organization and to implement new sanctions, has launched anti-Iran initiatives at the regional level. Trump's both criticism of the nuclear deal and harsh stance against Iran have been welcomed in the Middle East countries which are disturbed by the increasing regional influence of Iran. The Prime Minister of Israel Netanyahu, who declared the Iran issue as a diplomatic priority, was the first regional leader to meet with Trump. One of the issues discussed by the two leaders who gathered in Washington on February 15 was the "Iranian threat". In this meeting, Trump criticized the nuclear deal once again and stated that he would do more to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Vice President Michael Pence said "the leading state sponsor of terrorism continues to destabilize the Middle East and thanks to the nuclear deal, Iran now has additional sources to devote to these efforts. Let me be clear again: Under President Trump the United States will remain fully committed to ensuring that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon capable of threatening our countries, our allies in the region, especially Israel.”

Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jeubeir remarked that they welcome Trump administration's activities aiming to develop relations with traditional American allies and to contain Iran. Following Trump's phone call to King Salman on January 29, the White House stated that "the two leaders had agreed on struggling together against those who damage the security and stability in the region as well as those who interfere in other states' affairs, and on implementing the nuclear deal without compromising". On February 1, the Secretary of Defense Mattis visited Riyadh and met with the Minister of Defense  Mohammed bin Salman. The two sides stated that they were "against the interferences of the Iranian regime and its spies in the Middle East".

Iran's Responses

The first response to Trump's threatening messages was from Ali Akbar Velayati, the foreign relations advisor of Ali Khamenei. Remarking that "the US hasn't been able to achieve its goals even in the countries that have a weaker military capability than Iran", Velayati argued that the choices and opportunities of the US are restricted, and he stated, "Iran does not take these threats seriously". He underlined that Iran's regional policies would not change and added that "at all costs Iran would continue the military programs especially the missile defense program". The Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammad Zarif and the President Rouhani defended that Iran has right to develop its missile technology and remarked that they would not surrender to threats. In his statement on February 7, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Khamenei said that "they are grateful to Trump for revealing real face of the US". Likewise, according to him, the enemy showed its real face; which explicitly revealed the meaningless of the effort to establish a dialogue with the enemy.

In response to the US threats and new sanctions, Iran held a series of military exercises and new missiles were tested. During these exercises, military officials made harsh and courageous statements against the US. Ground Force Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour said, "the enemy should expect a strong slap in the face if it misevaluates and underestimates Iran's defensive capabilities".

As opposed to the activities of Trump administration to increase the pressure at the regional level, Iran put forward the Palestinian resistance. Khamenei called for "the continuation of Palestinian intifada." The leader of Hezbollah, Nasrallah stated that the missiles of Hezbollah "may hit any strategic place in Israel including Dimona where there are nuclear facilities".

Another response of Iran was to emphasize regional cooperation initiatives. Iranian government has been giving message of reconciliation to Saudi Arabia for a long time; however, it is hard to say that they have received an answer. However, Iranian President Rouhani visited Kuwait on the invitation of the emir of Kuwait in order to develop relations between Iran and the Gulf countries. Rouhani also went to Oman and visited Sultan Qaboos bin Said who has maintained good relations with Iran, unlike most of the Gulf countries.

The Growing Tension Between the United States and Iran 

Trump administration seems determined to increase pressure over Iran even though it does not cancel the nuclear deal. In this context, it is stated that Iran supports international terrorism, interferes in domestic affairs of countries in the region and destabilize the region by providing arms to non-state powers. Claiming that Iranian government still chases nuclear weapons despite the nuclear deal, Trump administration aims to make sure that the deal is implemented without compromising. He lays emphasis on new alternative sanctions to increase the political and economic pressure on Iran.

Trump also tries to increase the pressure on Iran at the regional level. The first evaluations are based on the estimations that he would reinforce the cooperation with the traditional American allies such as Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia etc. against the regional threats especially Iran. However, it is known that Trump is against using American sources abroad. On the other hand, the Secretary of Defense Mattis stated that "it is not yet necessary for the US to increase its military presence in the region". Therefore, it seems unlikely that the US administration will directly enter into a military conflict to contain the Iranian threat. It is also unclear whether the efforts for forming an anti-Iran alliance will be effective. As a matter of fact, the Arab countries have many disputes with Israel and the US ranging from Palestine issue to the 9/11 victims law, and there is no attempt to solve any of them. The Trump administration, however, will continue to encourage its allies in the region against Iran, which may lead to deepening of existing conflicts and new hot points in the region.

The fact that the escalation of tension with the US coincided with 38th anniversary celebrations of Islamic Revolution has caused an increase in anti-American sentiments and rhetoric in Iran. Even the moderates and the reformists issued a call for reconciliation and unity, while the government made harsh and securitizing statements. Therefore, the relative improvement in US-Iran relations that recorded during the President Obama’s term has now replaced by increasing tension. While the tensions is increasing in the relations between the two countries, the lack of dialogue channels draws attention. During the Obama period, Zarif and Kerry often used to meet and prevent tension from increasing. Javad Karimi-Ghodousi, member of National Security Committee of the Iranian Parliament claimed that Zarif had written letters to the new US Secretary of State, Tillerson, and asked the meetings to continue. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied this claim. Rouhani's visit to Oman is notable in this respect, because Sultan Qaboos had drawn attention by intermediating between Iran and the US before the nuclear deal. Considering the fact that Sultan Qaboos has good relations with Trump, there is no clear information yet about the possibility of mediation of Oman between the two countries.

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