Rouhani's election; change in Iran
Rouhani's election; change in Iran
27 June 2013, The New Turkey
http://www.thenewturkey.org/rouhanis-election-change-in-iran/new-region/1382
A new period has begun in Iran with Hujjat al Islam, [an honorific title meaning “authority on Islam”], Hassan Rouhani’s election as the president on June 14, 2013. However, this is a renewal that only includes the president and a few political elites of the country. Although some changes are expected in foreign policy, it is a mistake to see the election of Rouhani as the beginning of a major change inIran.
First of all, Rouhani himself is a veteran politician in Iran. After the Revolution, he took place among the political elites and gained political strength during the Ayetollah Ali Khamanei’s supreme leadership. Rouhani has been the representative of Khamanei in the Supreme National Security Council since 1989 and worked in top-level offices of the Islamic Republic regime. The president-elect kept the reformist camp at bay during the times that the Iranian politics divided into two as the Conservatives and the Reformists.
The second reason why no big change should be expected in Iran under Rouhani is that he gave no promise for any change during the election campaign. The new president ofIrankeeping radicalism at arm’s length describes himself as a “centralist.” He said that he will form a technocratic government away from partisanship. In an environment where the radicalism and partisanship of the Mahmoud Ahmedinajad administration are seen as the main reasons behind the economic problems and foreign policy issues, Rouhani adopts a middle-way technocrat stance and that has provided him considerable support from almost all social groups.
The third reason for not to expect any noteworthy changes in Iran is the political structure. After the Revolution, a two-level effective brake-balance system was set up in the political structure. One leg of this system is based on the separation of forces as seen in classical democracies and the other relies on the tutelage of ulama. Since this is the case, the executive leader cannot seek radical changes in the system without reaching a conciliation with other power centers. In fact, this has been clearly seen in the President Khatemi’s desperation he felt against the Establishment. Moreover, the ulama tutelage; in other words, Ayetollah Khamanei’s influence over the system has increased to the detriment of the legislative and executive bodies. The Ayetollah’s impact on the system has turned the presidency into a fairly ineffective institution.
Although a thorough change in the Islamic Republic regime is quite difficult, some limited moves can be made in the foreign policy. In fact, the discourses of economic and political changes loomed large within some certain margins during the presidential election campaign. Increasing external pressures and impositions onIranas well as their negative effects on the Iranian economy, plus the discontent in the country are pushing the regime’s leaders for some changes in the foreign policy to maintain the order. Although he himself does not represent the change, the support of pro-change social sects and reformists to Rouhani shows the public pressure in this direction.
The president-elect advocates expertise in economy and moderation in foreign policy. Rouhani’s election providesIrana chance of maneuverability for some foreign policy changes. However, it is a mistake to expect major modifications. As far as the position of the president in the system and the nature of relations between Khamanei and Rouhani are concerned, possible changes in the Iranian foreign policy would be made with the approval and supervision of the Ayetollah.
The nuclear activities of Iran will be the most important agenda item of the Iranian foreign policy during the Rouhani term. Despite international pressures,Iranhas managed uranium enrichment at the level of 20 percent and gained critical benefits in nuclear technology. On the other hand,Iranhas been isolated from the international political and economic relations due to its nuclear program. For this reason,Iranmay adopt transparency in its nuclear program in order to lower the tension with the regional powers and to avoid conflicts with big power centers as Rouhani promised. For the purpose, numerous delegations of observers would be invited to the nuclear facilities inIranand cooperation would be increased with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Again in this direction, the approval of the NPT supplementary protocol which was signed byIranin December 2004 would be brought back to the agenda.
As far as we understand from Rouhani’s remarks, the new Iranian administration will give importance to the relations with the European countries to unwind the economy and reduce the external pressures. Therefore, bad relations with theUnited Statesare expected to be balanced with the support of some European countries - as it was the case in the Khatemi period. Rouhani’s election as the president in Iran introduces a new opportunity not only for the revision of the Iranian foreign policy but also for the world powers who are willing to iron out relations with Iran.