The Iranian election is over, but the struggle continues
The Iranian election is over, but the struggle continues
14 June 2009
Bayram Sinkaya, METU, Department of International Relations, Research Assistant
Iran’s 10th presidential election, held on Friday, July 12th, 2009, was the most contentious election in Iran’s history. In the election, where President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad (radical), ex-prime minister Mir Hussein Mousavi (Reformist), ex-chairman of the Parliament Mahdi Karrubi (Reformist) and former head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Mohsen Rezai (conservative) were competing, the participation rate is at its highest level according to the numbers announced by Iran Ministry of the Interior. President Ahmadinejad was elected for a second time by winning 62% of the votes, while the Reformist candidate Mousavi obtained 33% of the votes.
Contention between the rivals is not confined with the election campaign and voting process, and the disputes continued in the post-election period. For the first time in Iranian history, the defeated candidates objected to the election results by claiming that there were electoral frauds and they rejected the results announced by Ministry of the Interior, which is responsible for the coordination of the elections. Thereupon, advocates of reform filled the streets to protest the election results in many cities, particularly Tehran and Tabriz, but the demonstrations were suppressed by force.
In the presidential elections which were held four years ago, the defeated candidates Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mahdi Karrubi had also claimed that there had been electoral fraud and irregularities in the elections, but they had not insisted on their claims and had “lodged their complaints to God.” During the campaign process, the candidates, who were worried about rigging and irregularities again in this election, repeatedly said that the people would not remain silent this time against the irregularities. Reformist candidates Mousavi and Karrubi established Election Supervision Committees to monitor the electoral irregularities closely and prevent them.
There were various reasons that made reformist candidates worried over electoral frauds and irregularities. First, there were ambiguities concerning the number of voters. The State Institute of Statistics claimed that the number of the people eligible to vote was 51 million, while the Election Board declared the number of voters to be 46 million. Another reason that led worries was the fact that the Ministry of Interior was running the elections, and there were no independent observers, other than the supervisors of the Guardian Council that allowed monitoring the election process. The most important source of the reformists’ apprehension was the politicization of Revolutionary Guards and Basij and their interference in the elections. It is claimed that these organizations, the most important supporters of President Ahmedinejad, interfered in the elections in his favor. Indeed, Sadegh Mahsouli,Minister of Interior in charge of for running elections, and Kamran Daneshju, Chair of the Election Board, were the former commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, which flamed the reformists’ apprehension.
In early June, heads of the Election Supervision Committees, A. Mohtashamipour and M. Alviri detailed their concerns about election irregularities in a letter addressed to Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Secretary of the Guardian Council charged with monitoring the elections. In this letter, it was claimed that Ministry of the Interior prepared ballots more than the number of the electors, and number of electoral stamps circulating was twice of the number of polling sites. It is reported in the letter that the Minister of the Interior and provincial governors held a secret meeting, and security of one third of the polling centers assigned to the Revolutionary Guards, and the resulted concerns were expressed. Additionally a group of Interior Ministry employees published an open letter in which they expressed their concern on the likelihood that the Ministry of Interior may distort votes, pointing out that one of the leading Ayatollahs (assumed to be Mesbah Yazdi) issued a fatwa calling to “do whatever to safeguard Islam.”
Amid discussion of prospected election irregularities in Iran, colorful election campaigns attracted much of the public attention. With the exception of Ahmadinejad, the most important difference between the candidates was their choice of color for their electoral campaigns. While Ahmadinejad used the colors of Iran’s flag, Mousavi choose green, Rezai used blue, and Kerrubi used white. In the final days of the campaign, Mousavi’s popularity was remarkably increased and the great meetings in Tehran led to expectations of a “green revolution.” Whereas supporters of Mousavi and the Westerners anticipating a green revolution in Iran, these development further flamed the apprehension of the guardians of the regime and the Revolutionary Guards who became obsessive about the likelihood of a “Velvet Revolution / Orange Revolutions” in Iran for years. At this juncture, director of the Political Bureau of the Revolutionary Guards, Yadollah Javani, wrote an article reminding that some “extremists” groups have been trying to carry out a “Velvet Revolution” in Iran applying to the methods utilized in other revolutions, and he warned that no permission would be given to demonstrate under the pretext of electoral irregularities.
Despite that warning, Mousavi organized a press conference before even half of the votes had been counted, and announced that he was winner of the election with a substantial margin and waiting the announcement of official results. Pointing to some irregularities, Mousavi wanted the authorities to deal with these problems properly. Contrary to Mousavi’s claim, the Election Board announced that Ahmedinejad was ahead in the polls. However, claiming that many irregularities took place during the election day, Mousavi said that the election rules were obviously violated, realities were hidden from the citizens, and he will not surrender to this dangerous charade. Mahdi Karrubi supported the claims concerning election irregularities, and stated that they would challenge to the election results. In spite of the challenges, the Interior Ministry and the Guardian Council rejected the claims and announced Ahmadinejad as the winner of the elections. After then, demonstrators took to the streets and protested the results. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamane issued a statement celebrating the citizens for their high level of participation in the elections and urged losing candidates not to make inflammatory remarks.
The election results will continue to be discussed for some time. As a matter of fact, while Mousavi supporters object to the election results and want renewal of elections, Ahmedinejad supporters charge Mousavi with provocation. However, it seems impossible to decide amendment or annulment of the results approved by the Ministry of Interior, Guardian Council, and Supreme Leader. Contrary to demands of annulment of election results the Iranian regime will utilize these elections as a great propaganda material, because the regime sees the participation rate to the elections as its legitimization by the people. The citizens’ participation rate in the June 12 elections was the highest ever since the referendum on the Islamic Republic held on March 30, 1979. In his statement about the results of the election, the Supreme Leader pointed out that it was a victory because the turnout was more than 80%, and the current president won more than 24 million votes. According to Khamanei, by this high participation rate to the elections the Iranian people demonstrated to all friends and enemies that they are loyal to the values of the revolution even after 30 years, and they will not return from this path in spite of political and psychological pressure. However, despite accepting regime’s basic characteristics, the reformist politicians by protesting the election results revealed that they would no longer concede to fait accomplis.
While supporters of Ahmadinejad were preparing to celebrate the election victory, the debates on the election results would sharpen political polarization. The struggle triggered by Ahmadinejad during the election campaign by harshly criticizing all the governments (Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami) before his own one and some of traditional conservatives would become more intense.
June 14 2009
http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/showArticle.aspx?ID=818